Prices in the contemporary art market weakly with anything an observer can measure.
Two canvases of similar size and period can differ in price by a factor of a hundred.
The explanation is that the market trades , and is manufactured by institutions.
A museum exhibition, a respected gallery and three critical essays move a price more than any quality visible on the surface.
This is not necessarily corrupt.
Judging contemporary work is genuinely hard, and to specialists is rational.
The difficulty is that the specialists often hold the work.
A gallery that sets a price also supports the artist, lends to museums and advises collectors.
results, the only public data, are therefore a poor guide.
Unsold lots are often withdrawn quietly, and hide the real level of demand.
Attempts to treat art as an asset class run into the same wall.
are built from repeat sales of the works that do sell, which is a filtered sample.
Returns look respectable until storage, insurance and are subtracted.
For collectors who buy what they want to live with, none of this matters.
For those buying an investment, the honest description is a thin market with excellent public relations.